This is something I have brought up before but I think it really needs to be revisited/explained. Can you elaborate on how you come up with your weekly projections? Week after week it seems that the projections are completely off base. I know that fantasy football is unpredictable and any type of projection is at best an educated guess. At some point however you need to look at your model. I'd love to understand how the weighting works just so I can understand how you come up with your numbers and I can adjust accordingly.
While projections can be taken with a grain of salt, most people tend to prepare for worst case scenario. From what I have seen in the projections at fleaflicker (using for two years) your projections represent ceilings for players. Again, just curious in your opinion and what you are doing to continually make sure the projections are following a sound mathematical model.
This is assuming of course you utilize your own model to predict scores. Frankly, I think you should just average the projections of all the major FF sites. That way you aren't having to manage and tweak your own model. Just my 2 cents.
We have our own staff of statistician experts that do the projections using their own unique method. This includes watching every game from every week, how the player is currently doing and recent results, how the opponent fares against that position, the team's matchup/streak, computer models and algorithms, the history of the player against the team/scheme, injuries, practice reports, and a lot more.
Like you said they are just projections and the best educated guess we can make with all our knowledge. However, they are unique to our own method that we've been using for several years now.
Benash72Thu 10/23/14 7:48 PM
Hey Guys,
This is something I have brought up before but I think it really needs to be revisited/explained. Can you elaborate on how you come up with your weekly projections? Week after week it seems that the projections are completely off base. I know that fantasy football is unpredictable and any type of projection is at best an educated guess. At some point however you need to look at your model. I'd love to understand how the weighting works just so I can understand how you come up with your numbers and I can adjust accordingly.
While projections can be taken with a grain of salt, most people tend to prepare for worst case scenario. From what I have seen in the projections at fleaflicker (using for two years) your projections represent ceilings for players. Again, just curious in your opinion and what you are doing to continually make sure the projections are following a sound mathematical model.
Benash72Thu 10/23/14 7:51 PM
This is assuming of course you utilize your own model to predict scores. Frankly, I think you should just average the projections of all the major FF sites. That way you aren't having to manage and tweak your own model. Just my 2 cents.
FleaMod AdminThu 10/23/14 8:19 PM
We have our own staff of statistician experts that do the projections using their own unique method. This includes watching every game from every week, how the player is currently doing and recent results, how the opponent fares against that position, the team's matchup/streak, computer models and algorithms, the history of the player against the team/scheme, injuries, practice reports, and a lot more.
Like you said they are just projections and the best educated guess we can make with all our knowledge. However, they are unique to our own method that we've been using for several years now.